The Congress government’s fate in Rajasthan lies in the hands of 6 ‘BSP’ MLAs whose support is crucial for the Government’s survival. Rajasthan is holding its assembly meeting on 14th August after much delay and discussions with its Governor.
Though these BSP MLA’s have formally ‘joined’ the Congress, there are 2 Public Interest Litigations (PILs) against this merger, one from the BSP side while the other filed by a BJP MLA.
Both these PILs have demanded the disqualification of these 6 MLAs-Deepchand Kheria, Wajib Ali, Sandeep Yadav, Jogendra Awana, Lakhan Meena and Rajendra Gudha.
Political experts have said that the merger of these 6 MLAs is unlikely to be valid.
This, eventually would lead to 2 scenarios
Scenario #1
If the 6 ‘BSP’ MLAs return to their party, the Congress government can lose its majority. This would result in 101 MLAs supporting the Government, along with the other 13 independent, 2 Bhartiya Tribal Party MLAs and one each of the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Communist Party Marxist (CPIM) which increases the tally to 118.
The Congress government might see votes against it by the ex-deputy CM Pilot’s faction along with the opposition including the 72 BJP MLAs, 3 MLAs of BJP ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the 6 BSP MLAs.
This tally could reach to 100 MLAs, one more than the Ashok Gehlot faction. Moreover, with no tie, the Assembly Speaker may not need to vote.
Scenario #2
In the event of the BSP losing the case, the Gehlot faction can expect 105 MLAs to vote for the floor test. This includes 82 Congress MLAs, 6 BSP MLAs, 13 independents and 3 others.
In this event, the Sachin Pilot faction and the BJP, with a combined strength of 94 votes could lose the floor test by 11 votes.
Whatever happens, the 6 BSP MLAs are the deciding factor to see which party wrests control of Rajasthan.